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It is interesting to compare the pre- and post- event forecast probabilities for the Namie, Japan earthquake.  As readers of this blog will know, probabilities in the forecast here change when a large event occurs.  For the M6.5 earthquake that occurred last saturday, probabilities for M>6 earthquakes decreased, whereas probabilities for the M>7 earthquakes increased slightly.  The changes can be seen in the attached comparison screenshots.

We have only been here in Kyoto and Sendai, Japan, 10 days and so far have experienced a super typhoon (Neoguri) and now an earthquake.  This morning, I went down to the 26th floor of our hotel here in Sendai, to photograph the rising sun.  Just before 4:00 am, the building started moderate shaking, which continued for about 20 seconds.  It turned out to be a magnitude 6.8 earthquake (later downgraded to a magnitude 6.5 event) in the trench.  I am here to give a series of lectures at Tohoku University on earthquake forecasting, so it was timely.  No damage or injuries, and no significant ts

Details can be found here.  We leave Kyoto tomorow, July 8 for Sendai, and should miss the worst of the storm, or so we hope.

Details can be found here.  We are in Japan for a series of lectures in Kyoto and Sendai.

The earthquake occurred on the Arizona side of the New Mexico-Arizona border.  Its an interesting event inasmuch as the seismicity in the area seems to be increasing, even though the forecast probabilities are fairly low.  Below is a map with a circular selection region.

In any field of endeavor be it sports, law, medicine, or science, there are legendary places, episodes, and people that you just can’t miss reading about. In geophysics, Lituya Bay stands in this category, one almost verging on tall tale.

Recently there have been a series of M>6 earthquakes in Tajikistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan, Central Asia.  We can use the hazard viewer to evaluate the risk, which appears to be quite high at this time.  A screenshot of the selected region is below, together with 3 recent M~4 earthquakes.

A couple of years ago, a New York Times story described new research that indicates financial markets bear remarkable similarities to earthquakes.  Well, we took this idea and ran with it, the result being Seismic Funds LLC.  Open Hazards serves as an advisor to the trading arm at Seismic Funds.  I am happy to report that in 2012, trading real money, the fund was up about +14.5% (before fees).  In 2013, the fund was up about +32% (before fees).  And so far year to date (YT

On June 2 a news item in the LA Times described a recent increase in the number of magnitude > 4 earthquakes in the Los Angeles area.  I thought I would take a look at the situation using the hazard viewer on this site.  We can start by defining the circular selection region.

This is supposed to be an El Nino year, as the forecast below for October-December 2014 shows.  Forecast is from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society of Columbia University.  Wind shear in El Nino years tends to be higher than average, and inhibits the formation of tropical cyclones.